Measuring the Mass of a Galaxy: An evaluation of the performance of Bayesian mass estimates using statistical simulation
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This research uses a Bayesian approach to study the biases that may occur when kinematic data is used to estimate the mass of a galaxy. Data is simulated from the Hernquist (1990) distribution functions (DFs) for velocity dispersions of the isotropic, constant anisotropic, and anisotropic Osipkov (1979) and Merritt (1985) type, and then analysed using the isotropic Hernquist model. Biases are explored when i) the model and data come from the same DF, ii) the model and data come from the same DF but tangential velocities are unknown, iii) the model and data come from different DFs, and iv) the model and data come from different DFs and the tangential velocities are unknown. Mock observations are also created from the Gauthier (2006) simulations and analysed with the isotropic Hernquist model. No bias was found in situation (i), a slight positive bias was found in (ii), a negative bias was found in (iii), and a large positive bias was found in (iv). The mass estimate of the Gauthier system when tangential velocities were unknown was nearly correct, but the mass profile was not described well by the isotropic Hernquist model. When the Gauthier data was analysed with the tangential velocities, the mass of the system was overestimated. The code created for the research runs three parallel Markov Chains for each data set, uses the Gelman-Rubin statistic to assess convergence, and combines the converged chains into a single sample of the posterior distribution for each data set. The code also includes two ways to deal with nuisance parameters. One is to marginalize over the nuisance parameter at every step in the chain, and the other is to sample the nuisance parameters using a hybrid-Gibbs sampler. When tangential velocities, v(t), are unobserved in the analyses above, they are sampled as nuisance parameters in the Markov Chain. The v(t) estimates from the Markov chains did a poor job of estimating the true tangential velocities. However, the posterior samples of v(t) proved to be useful, as the estimates of the tangential velocities helped explain the biases discovered in situations (i)-(iv) above.