Investigating the Effects of Time-of-day, Horizon, and Informant Accuracy in the Explore-Exploit Dilemma

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Naeini, Shahryar

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thesis

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eng

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Explore-Exploit Dilemma , Informant Accuracy , Horizon , Time-of-day , Chronotype , Circadian Rhythm , Sleepiness , Fatigue , Decision-making , Information-seeking , Risk-taking , Exploration

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Numerous physiological and psychological processes in animals, including sleep/wake behavior, occur in a cycle of approximately 24 hours, called the circadian rhythm. As a diurnal species, humans’ levels of sleepiness and fatigue typically increase in the later (evening and nighttime) hours of this 24-hour cycle. Higher levels of sleepiness and fatigue are known to be associated with cognitive impairments, alterations in decision-making, and increased risk-taking behavior. One instance of decision-making that may be affected by sleepiness is the choice between exploiting what is familiar and exploring less-familiar options, known as the Explore-Exploit Dilemma. Here, we examined the role of the following factors in guiding decisions in an online Explore-Exploit paradigm: horizon (i.e., the number of future opportunities for making the decision between exploring and exploiting); accuracy of an informant (high vs. low accuracy of information provided); and time-of-day (Day: 10 am – 2 pm vs. Night: 10 pm – 2 am). Results indicate that longer horizons increase exploration over exploitation choices, and that participants were more likely to choose the informant providing higher-accuracy information. However, no significant main or interaction effects were found for the time-of-day manipulation. Together, these findings suggest that Explore-Exploit decisions are sensitive to horizon (short vs. long) and informant accuracy, but not to time of day and circadian influences (day vs. night). Future studies should control for the number of waking hours prior to participation, recruit a larger, more diverse sample, and use in-laboratory designs with more experimental controls to extend the literature on explore-exploit decisions and their modulation by factors such as circadian rhythm and levels of sleepiness/fatigue.

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