Relationship between Climate-Induced Changes and Spatial-Temporal Trends of the Bathurst Caribou Herd During Rapid Population Decline (1997-2017)
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Authors
Cross, Lauren
Date
2025-01-03
Type
thesis
Language
eng
Keyword
Bathurst , Caribou , GIS , Range Use , Climate Change
Alternative Title
Abstract
The Bathurst caribou herd is a population of migratory barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) that inhabits the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada. Similar to many caribou populations globally, the Bathurst herd has experienced a dramatic population decline, from an estimated 472,000 animals in 1986 to 6,240 in 2021. Concerns have arisen that climate change and land-use changes may be altering habitat characteristics, leading to shifts in range distribution. The summer range on the sub-Arctic tundra is crucial for caribou to access nutritious forage after long winter months and calving, and before the fall breeding season. This research analyzed collar telemetry data obtained by the Government of the Northwest Territories to assess the summer range distribution of Bathurst caribou from 1997 to 2017. Annual summer range distribution, home range extents, and core-use areas were determined using kernel density estimation for each year’s data. Subsequently, a Theil-Sen regression analysis identified spatial trends in summer range distribution. These analyses revealed a significant northward shift and contraction of the herd over time, with increased use northwest of Contwoyto Lake. Results of the Theil-Sen analysis, combined with various climatic and environmental variables, informed the development of two random forest models examining the influence of habitat characteristics on changes in caribou use. Results indicated that increases in temperature trends above 0.10 degrees Celsius, delayed snow melt timing, delayed SOS and increased maximum EVI were all associated with decreases in relative summer habitat use by the herd. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for land-use decisions and the establishment of protected areas within the herd’s range, aiming to prevent extinction.
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Copying and Preserving Your Thesis
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ProQuest PhD and Master's Theses International Dissemination Agreement
Intellectual Property Guidelines at Queen's University
Copying and Preserving Your Thesis
This publication is made available by the authority of the copyright owner solely for the purpose of private study and research and may not be copied or reproduced except as permitted by the copyright laws without written authority from the copyright owner.